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China spot prices for polysilicon to rise to US$18-20/kg if China imposes anti-dumping, anti-subsidy

The China government is likely to impose anti-dumping and anti-subsidization tariffs on polysilicon imported from the US, EU and South Korea in January or February 2013, and this will cause China spot market prices for the material to rise from US$15/kg currently to US$18-20/kg, according to Taiwan-based makers.

Solar makers believe this may cause China-based integrated solar firms that are under material supply contracts with international firms to outsource products all the way from polysilicon to cells to Taiwan-based firms. This wave of outsourcing is one of the reasons Taiwan-based solar wafer firms are optimistic about the market.

In addition, the possible tariff will reduce the amount of international material in China forcing the country to heavily rely on domestic supplies.

For China's downstream vertically integrated solar firms, the possible tariff is another threat to survival as material costs may increase, while products are taxed by the US, and maybe by the EU.

According to China-based media claiming to have obtained leaked figures from China's customs, since the announcement of the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation, the amount of imported polysilicon from the US and South Korea from February-July decreased by 40% compared to the previous six months.


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